CODEXCard 5 of 6 · Black Swan & Antifragility
Lindy effect
For things that survive time, age predicts future life.
The Lindy effect is the idea that the future life expectancy of non-perishable things grows with their age. A novel people have kept reading across generations will probably still be read long after we are gone, while this year's bestseller may soon be forgotten. Taleb popularised the term, drawing on earlier work by Benoit Mandelbrot. The name comes from Lindy's, a New York delicatessen where comedians were said to discuss how long shows would run.
The reasoning is that time works as a filter. Ideas, tools and customs that have lasted have already survived many tests, changes in fashion and competing alternatives. Each extra year of survival is more evidence that they meet some durable need. New things have not been tested yet, so their failure rate is naturally higher.
The mistake is treating age as proof and novelty as a warning. Many new ideas are better than what came before, and some old practices persisted only through habit. Use the Lindy effect as a starting point that sets the burden of proof. A new idea needs to show its value. An old one can still be updated when the evidence changes.
The rule only applies to things that do not age physically. People and machines wear out, so for them, more years usually means fewer remaining.
Example
Choosing what to read on holiday, you hesitate between a buzzy business book released last month and a classic novel people have loved for over a century. The Lindy view suggests the classic is the safer bet for lasting value, while the new release may be outdated within a few years.
Try it this week
When picking your next book, tool or method, give extra weight to one that has stayed useful for decades.
From Black Swan & Antifragility (Nassim N. Taleb · 2007).
